On-site police, security personnel, transportation employees, train and bus passengers, and ordinary citizens have prevented 10.6% of the 5,372 terrorist attacks on train, bus, track, and road targets in public surface transportation systems since 1970, according to a new Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) report, “Does ‘See Something, Say Something’ Work?”

Ninety-nine percent of the attacks prevented involved suspicious packages, most of which turned out to be bombs.

“By discovering and reporting suspicious objects, [transport staff and passengers] have prevented more than 10% of all terrorist attacks on public surface transportation,” said report author Brian Michael Jenkins, MTI’s national transportation security center director. “Detection rates are even better in the economically advanced countries where more than 14 percent of the attempts are detected — and have been improving.”

Figure 1: Number of Attacks by Target Category

The perspective reports the following findings with regard to the campaign’s effectiveness based on varying circumstances and factors:

• 13.8% of suicide bombers were detected, which is better than the rate for detecting devices left by non-suicide attacks, which is 10.6%.

• 14.2% of attacks are detected in Group One countries (those like the U.S. with high-income economies), giving them the highest detection rates.

• 2,793 of attacks were directed against buses, bus stations, and people waiting at bus stops.

• 1,381 of attacks were directed at trains and train stations.

• 835 were attacks on railroad tracks.

• 363 were highway targets like vehicle bridges and tunnels. 

“Since 1980, the worldwide detection rate has improved for attacks on train, track, and road targets, but not for attacks on buses, which has only slightly declined. Group One countries have shown the greatest improvement, and the detection rates for track targets is approaching 30%, and 20% for train targets,” said Bruce Butterworth, former director, aviation security operations, at the Federal Aviation Administration.