Updated research from Interact Analysis shows there will be 634,000 battery-electric buses and trucks in 2022, out of a total market of 18.2 million.
By 2030, things will have changed significantly, and there will be over nine million battery-electric buses and trucks out of a total market of 21 million. Meanwhile, the total global market for trucks, both electrified and non-electrified, remains much larger than that of buses, so most OEMs are likely to prioritize development of electric trucks over buses, according to Interact Analysis. Accordingly, the electric truck market will become far larger than the electric bus market by the second half of the decade.
While battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) are set for strong growth, this will vary widely according to vehicle type and country. In Germany, for example, the BEV market for buses will experience impressive growth in 2022, but little or no growth in 2029. In contrast, on a global basis, long-haul battery-electric trucks have a very low forecast shipment for 2022 but significant growth for 2029.
In terms of long-haul vehicles (both trucks and buses), battery electric is also edging ahead, but fuel cells still have a fighting chance in this segment of the market. Right out to 2030, the long-haul market will be dominated by diesel, which forms over 90% of the category “others” in the graph below. However, fuel cells are forecast to have a much larger share of the market relative to batteries. The reason for this is that long-haul battery electric technology does not have the same cost advantage over fuel cell that it does in short haul urban transport. However, total cost of ownership analysis shows that long haul battery vehicles do still have lower vehicle, running, and infrastructure costs than fuel cells; while interviews with leading OEMs show that most also expect battery technology to prevail in the long run. Nevertheless, long haul remains the one area of the vehicle market where fuel cells still have a fighting chance.