The number of available and announced models of zero-emission buses, trucks, and off-road equipment in the U.S. and Canada is on track to rise nearly 78% by the end of 2020 compared to year-end 2019 — and that figure is expected to more than double by 2023. By the end of 2020, there will be 169 different zero-emission (ZE) medium- and heavy-duty vehicle models in commercial production compared to 95 models in 2019. That figure is expected to increase to 195 models by 2023 (full findings here). 

The figures come from the Zero-Emission Technology Inventory (ZETI), a product of CALSTART’s Global Commercial Vehicle Drive to Zero program (Drive to Zero). Launched in March of 2020, ZETI is an interactive online tool that tracks the growth of the ZE commercial vehicles globally, as measured by model availability.

Additional new data from ZETI shows that ZE commercial models across nearly all vehicle types currently demonstrate driving range capabilities commensurate with user needs, and that longer ranges — including extreme ranges — are coming in the next two-to-three years.

“We are already seeing a healthy number of zero-emission transit and school buses rated for at least 100 miles, and the zero-emission trucks currently on the market offer similar ranges,” said Ben Mandel, CALSTART’s Northeast Regional Director who leads the ZETI team. “In the coming two-to-three years, we expect to see a growing number of zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty trucks in the 200-mile or greater range, with a few extra long-distance models greater than 600 miles by 2023.”

In addition to the new data from ZETI, CALSTART’s Drive to Zero program is releasing an updated version of its Policies and Actions Toolkit. The Toolkit, unveiled in 2019 at the Tenth Clean Energy Ministerial and Fourth Mission Innovation Ministerial in Vancouver, is a portfolio of the key policies, incentives and investments governments and industry can take to spur faster near- and zero-emission commercial vehicle deployment. Since its inception, the Toolkit has grown by roughly 50%, adding new policies, actions, and categories of drivers for ZE commercial vehicles.

ZETI and the Policies and Actions Toolkit are among the first set of tools developed by CALSTART’s Drive to Zero program. Drive to Zero unites key regions of change, along with leading manufacturers and fleet users, to collaboratively speed development and adoption through policies, financial incentives, infrastructure investments, and pilot projects that support early market success and create conditions for organic growth.

Drive to Zero’s goal is to make ZE commercial vehicles commercially viable by 2025 and dominant by 2040 in specific vehicle segments and regions through a strategy, the Beachhead Strategy, designed to catalyze the ZE commercial vehicle segment.   

Industry leaders such as (but not limited to) BYD Motors, Siemens, The Lion Electric Co., New Flyer Industries, and governments in cities around the world have agreed to work collaboratively to achieve Drive to Zero’s goal to drive market viability for the ZE commercial vehicle sector in key applications and regions by 2025 and achieve full market penetration by 2040.